중국 경쟁사들, ASML의 EUV 핵심 독점 지위 약화 못해

Chinese Competitors Aren’t Eroding ASML’s EUV Core Monopoly ASML just told investors its EUV machines are sold out through 2028, yet the stock sits well below its 52-week high. Whether supply constraints become a ceiling or a catalyst depends on one question management has so far refused to… ASML (NASDAQ:ASML | ASML Price Prediction) trades at $1,676.69. The world’s only supplier of EUV lithography just told investors that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will fall short of customer demand. ASML makes the lithography, metrology and inspection systems that chipmakers use to print circuits on wafers. Every advanced logic and memory node depends on its EUV tools. Shares have gained 57.49% year to date but slipped 2.02% over the past month. Reuters noted that the “sold out” outlook is driving investors to look past demand alone (Reuters). Sold-Out Order Book Reframes the Recent Pullback Q3 revenue reached $13.06 billion against estimates of $11.68 billion, up 55.2% year over year. Gross margin came in at 57.5%. Customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030, and ASML has finished negotiating price increases on its most critical products, with the full effect starting from 2028. The China competition story looks thin. CEO Christophe Fouquet said Chinese progress toward rival tools “is not very strong” and has barely moved in about 25 years of discussion. A forward P/E of 29 sits well below the trailing multiple. Premium Multiple Leaves Little Room for an AI Spending Pause The stock trades at 41 times trailing earnings and 49.07 times EV/EBITDA. GAAP EPS of $14.4761 beat the $10.6598 consensus, but that figure includes a €509.7 million one-time gain on equity investments. China should make up about 20% of 2026 sales, which leaves ASML exposed if export controls tighten. Memory system sales are set to grow about 75% this year, while logic grows only about 10%. That mix increases ASML’s exposure to the memory segment. Tight capacity could also lead customers to over-order and later cancel. Execution on Supply Now Drives the Stock Supply is now the open question for ASML. Q4 gross margin guidance of about 57% already reflects capacity expansion costs. Management also declined to give new 2027 or 2028 capacity figures. Investors can keep an eye on those numbers at the upcoming Capital Markets Day, along with proof that Q4 lands inside the €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion range. Analysts See Roughly 28% Upside After a Year of Beating the Market The average analyst target of $2,145.58 implies about 27.97% upside. Targets are estimates, though, and nothing ensures them. Of 42 analysts: - Strong Buy: 7 - Buy: 31 - Hold: 3 - Sell: 1 Over the past year ASML rose 64.67%, compared with 15.18% for the S&P 500. The stock trades below its 52-week high of $1,997.38. EUV Moat Supports the Bull Case At $1,676.69, several factors support the bull case for ASML. Each down payment comes with a significant exit cost, so the backlog is firm. Management also said Carl Zeiss is not currently a bottleneck for added capacity. The next-generation NXE:3800F, rated at 260 wafers per hour, arrives in early 2027. Price increases follow, adding margin over 2027 and 2028. High-NA EUV extends the timeline further. Samsung plans high-volume production in 2028 and TSMC (NYSE:TSM) in 2030. No Chinese supplier has a credible answer to either low-NA or High-NA tools. The thesis would break if AI capex is cut, orders get pushed out, or export rules expand to cover mainstream immersion tools sold into China. The picks-and-shovels names beyond the chipmakers themselves (power, cooling, networking) are the ones we rounded up in a free report on the AI buildout. Absent one of those scenarios, ASML’s pricing power and sold-out capacity support a monopoly that is still extending its lead. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.