애플 머티리얼스 대 엔비디아: 2026년 더 나은 반도체주는?

The artificial intelligence spending boom has rewarded chip designers along with the companies that supply equipment to chip factories. Should you favor Applied Materials (AMAT -2.00%) or Nvidia (NVDA +1.15%) today? Applied Materials provides the equipment and software used to manufacture semiconductors, and Nvidia designs the high-performance processors that power data centers and AI models. Both benefit from AI spending, but they sit at different points in the supply chain, making for a useful investment comparison. AMAT & NVDA: Performance Comparison Key Financial Metrics The case for Applied Materials Applied Materials serves as a vital provider of equipment and software for the global semiconductor industry. Two customers accounted for about 19% and 15% of net revenue in fiscal 2025. This level of customer concentration adds a layer of risk to the business. In February 2026, the company agreed to pay $252.5 million to settle Commerce Department allegations that certain shipments to China between 2020 and 2022 did not comply with export rules. In May 2026, it announced a partnership with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM -0.52%) to develop next-generation chip technologies at its EPIC Center in Silicon Valley. In the fiscal year ended Oct. 26, 2025, revenue reached nearly $28.4 billion, up about 4.4% from the prior fiscal year. The company reported net income of roughly $7.0 billion, which resulted in a net margin of roughly 24.7%. This indicates that the business remains highly profitable even as it navigates shifting trade policies and investments in new manufacturing technologies. Net income slipped about 2.5% from the prior year as income tax expense more than doubled to about $2.3 billion, including roughly $1.1 billion in tax items the company excludes from its non-GAAP results. Growth has since picked up, with revenue up 25% year over year to $9.1 billion in the quarter ended July 26, 2026. As of its October 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio stands at approximately 0.3x. This ratio, which measures total debt relative to shareholders' equity, suggests a conservative borrowing approach. The current ratio is roughly 2.6x, which indicates the ability to meet short-term obligations and supports a healthy liquidity position. Free cash flow for the fiscal year ended Oct. 26, 2025, was close to $5.7 billion. Free cash flow is the cash remaining after paying for operating costs and equipment, providing the company with flexibility for research or shareholder returns. The case for Nvidia Nvidia has become a full-stack AI infrastructure provider, far beyond its origins in gaming hardware. The company relies on a network of massive partners, including major cloud service providers and system integrators. In fiscal 2026, sales to one direct customer represented about 22% of total revenue, while another accounted for roughly 14%. Nvidia invested $30 billion in OpenAI's funding round in February 2026, and in August, it agreed to residual value guarantees, with an initial payment obligation capped at $105 billion, that back OpenAI's leases at a planned Ohio data center campus. In the fiscal year ended Jan. 25, 2026, revenue reached about $215.9 billion, up roughly 65.5% year over year. This surge was driven primarily by the Compute and Networking segment as data centers globally upgraded to support AI workloads. Net income for the period was close to $120.1 billion, resulting in an exceptionally high net margin of nearly 55.6%. Net income also benefited from about $8.9 billion in pre-tax gains on equity investments, and operating income alone came to roughly 60% of revenue. Revenue has continued to climb, more than doubling year over year to $96.2 billion in the quarter ended July 26, 2026. As of its January 2026 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is about 0.05x on a total-debt basis, indicating very low debt relative to equity. The current ratio stands at roughly 3.9x, suggesting the company has ample short-term assets to cover its liabilities. Free cash flow for the fiscal year ended Jan. 25, 2026, came to about $96.6 billion. This cash generation gives the company room to invest heavily in next-generation research and development. In September 2026, the board added $150 billion to the share repurchase program, bringing the remaining authorization to $235 billion, which the company expects to use through fiscal 2028. Nvidia issued $25 billion of senior notes in June 2026, which lifted its debt-to-equity ratio to about 0.15x as of July 26, 2026. Risk profile comparison Applied Materials faces significant risks from evolving international trade policies, particularly export restrictions on manufacturing equipment to China. Failure to obtain the necessary export licenses could limit market access and create competitive disadvantages relative to local rivals. The company also deals with cyclicality in the semiconductor market, where inaccurate demand forecasting can lead to inventory write-offs. Its February 2026 settlement also includes a three-year suspended denial of export privileges and two required compliance audits, so failing to meet those terms could trigger the denial order. Nvidia is similarly subject to complex export controls that restrict its ability to sell high-performance chips to China and other regions. Management's outlook for the quarter ending in October assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. The company relies heavily on third-party manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF +0.00%), creating a dependency on Asian supply chains. This concentration makes the company vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and manufacturing delays. Nvidia also carried $279 billion of supply and capacity commitments as of July 26, 2026, obligations that would weigh on it if demand cooled. Additionally, Nvidia has received requests for information from competition regulators, and it faces a long-running securities lawsuit over its 2017 and 2018 statements about cryptocurrency mining demand, which could weigh on its reputation and management focus. Valuation comparison Nvidia trades at a much lower multiple of expected earnings than Applied Materials, which looks cheaper only when measured against sales. Valuation metrics include sourcing from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers. The Forward P/E compares the current stock price to future earnings estimates. Meanwhile, the P/S ratio measures market capitalization against sales over the past twelve months. Which stock would I buy in 2026? I'd lean toward Nvidia, with one caveat attached. Its customer list is narrower than its size suggests, since two direct customers accounted for more than a third of revenue last fiscal year, and a pause in spending by either would show up fast. What tips the scale for me is the price of growth. Nvidia's sales more than doubled in its latest quarter, yet the stock carries a much lower multiple of expected earnings than Applied Materials. Analysts expect Nvidia's profits to keep rising, though forecasts for a company this large can miss in either direction. I'd also watch its deepening financial ties to OpenAI, including lease guarantees on a planned data center campus. Applied Materials remains a business worth owning for the long haul. Its tools go into chip factories across the industry, so it gains from AI demand whichever designer leads. Its February settlement with the Commerce Department resolved a long-running export probe, though the compliance terms run into 2028. Still, its exposure to China export rules and the industry's boom-and-bust spending cycles makes it a stock I would add in stages over time. Owning both in a diversified portfolio is a reasonable way to spread exposure across the AI supply chain.